Failure Analysis
OneWeb died from a catastrophic mismatch between its capital-intensive, long-cycle business model and the availability of patient capital during a black swan event. The...
OneWeb \UK
OneWeb promised to democratize global internet access by deploying a constellation of 650+ low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, bringing broadband connectivity to the 3 billion people living in unconnected or underserved regions. The vision was compelling: while terrestrial infrastructure required decades and billions to build fiber networks across rural areas, mountains, and oceans, OneWeb could theoretically 'leapfrog' this limitation by beaming internet from space. For governments seeking to connect remote populations, airlines wanting in-flight WiFi, and maritime operators needing reliable connectivity, OneWeb offered a single solution that transcended geography. The psychological hook was powerful—space-based infrastructure felt inevitable, futuristic, and aligned with the Silicon Valley ethos of using technology to solve humanity's biggest problems. Investors saw a winner-take-most market where first-mover advantage in orbital slots and spectrum licensing could create a defensible moat worth hundreds of billions.
Discover the reason behind the shutdown and the market before & today
Market Analysis
The LEO satellite broadband market has evolved dramatically since OneWeb's bankruptcy. Starlink dominates with 5,000+ satellites, 2M+ subscribers, and $4B+ in annual revenue, proving...
Startup Learnings
Capital-intensive hardware businesses cannot operate on traditional VC funding cycles. OneWeb raised $3.4B over 8 years but needed $5-6B to reach profitability—a gap that...
Market Potential
The total addressable market for global broadband connectivity remains enormous—$1 trillion+ when combining consumer internet access, enterprise connectivity (aviation, maritime, oil/gas, military), IoT sensor...
Difficulty
Building a satellite constellation requires navigating aerospace manufacturing, launch logistics, spectrum regulation across 100+ countries, ground station infrastructure, and customer hardware distribution—all capital-intensive, slow-moving...
Scalability
Satellite constellations exhibit brutal negative economies of scale in the early phases. Each satellite costs $1M+ to manufacture and $50K-$500K to launch, but revenue...
Rebuild & monetization strategy: Resurrect the company
Execution Plan
Phase 2
Month 4-12: Design and manufacture 6 prototype CubeSats with commercial IoT radio payloads, partnering with established satellite bus providers (GomSpace, Tyvak) to avoid reinventing hardware. Launch first batch via SpaceX Rideshare ($1M-$2M) to achieve polar orbit coverage over Arctic shipping lanes and Siberian rail corridors—two high-value, underserved routes where customers will pay premium prices.
Phase 3
Month 13-18: Deploy 5,000 IoT terminals to anchor customers (shipping containers on Arctic routes, rail cars on Trans-Siberian Railway) and validate 95%+ uptime and sub-5-minute latency. Use real-world data to prove ROI: customers save $500K+ annually through theft prevention, route optimization, and predictive maintenance alerts. Publish case studies and secure $50M Series A from infrastructure investors (Brookfield, Blackstone) based on proven unit economics.
Phase 4
Month 19-36: Scale to 50-satellite constellation covering all major trade corridors (Suez Canal, Panama Canal, Silk Road, Australian Outback mining routes) and expand device deployments to 100K+ units. Reach $120M ARR ($100/device/month × 100K devices) with 60% gross margins, achieving cash-flow breakeven. Use operating cash flow plus $200M Series B to fund full 150-satellite global constellation and expand into adjacent verticals (agriculture sensors, wildlife tracking, disaster response).
Monetization Strategy
Primary revenue: $50-$150/device/month recurring subscription for satellite connectivity, data platform access, and API integrations (average $100/month = $1,200 annual contract value per device). Target 500K devices by Year 5 = $600M ARR. Secondary revenue: (1) Hardware sales—sell IoT terminals at cost ($50-$100) or subsidize for multi-year contracts, avoiding the capital trap of hardware financing; (2) Data analytics upsell—charge $50K-$500K annually for predictive maintenance algorithms, route optimization AI, and supply chain visibility dashboards built on aggregated telemetry data; (3) Government contracts—sell priority access and dedicated satellite capacity to military and disaster response agencies at $10M-$50M per contract. Gross margins: 60-70% at scale (satellite COGS amortized over 10-year lifespan, minimal variable costs per device). Reach cash-flow breakeven at 100K devices ($120M ARR), requiring only 50-satellite constellation vs OneWeb's 300+. Exit strategy: acquisition by Starlink, Amazon (Kuiper), or incumbent satellite operators (Iridium, Inmarsat) seeking to add IoT vertical, or IPO at $3B-$5B valuation (5-8x revenue multiple typical for infrastructure SaaS).
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