Failure Analysis
Mobike died from a toxic combination of unsustainable unit economics and the tragedy of the commons at scale. The business model required massive upfront...
Mobike \China
Mobike promised urban mobility liberation: unlock a bike anywhere via smartphone, ride it, leave it anywhere. No docking stations, no keys, no friction. The value proposition was frictionless micro-mobility at city scale—solving the 'last mile' problem for commuters while reducing congestion and pollution. It tapped into China's smartphone penetration, mobile payment ubiquity, and urban density. The psychological hook was freedom and convenience: your city becomes a seamless grid of available transportation. It felt like the future of urban living, backed by IoT hardware (GPS locks, solar panels) that seemed sophisticated enough to work at scale.
Discover the reason behind the shutdown and the market before & today
Market Analysis
The micro-mobility market today is characterized by consolidation, profitability focus, and integration into super-apps. Standalone bike-sharing has largely failed globally; survivors are either municipally...
Startup Learnings
Hardware-as-a-Service requires 10x better unit economics than you think. Mobike needed bikes to generate $1+ per day to be viable, but achieved $0.30. In...
Market Potential
The micro-mobility market has matured but consolidated. E-scooters have captured significant share due to better unit economics (smaller, easier to maintain, higher utilization). Bike-sharing...
Difficulty
The core technology—IoT locks, GPS tracking, mobile apps, payment integration—is now commoditized. Hardware manufacturing in China is accessible. Cloud infrastructure and mapping APIs are...
Scalability
Scalability is fundamentally constrained by unit economics and physical asset management. Unlike software, each new market requires capital-intensive deployment of bikes, local operations teams,...
Rebuild & monetization strategy: Resurrect the company
Execution Plan
Phase 2
Deploy 100-200 bikes with GPS-enabled smart locks and geofencing. Use off-the-shelf hardware (e.g., Omni locks) to minimize upfront R&D.
Phase 3
Build a simple mobile app for bike unlocking and a web dashboard for the client to track usage, maintenance needs, and sustainability metrics (CO2 saved, parking spaces freed).
Phase 4
Run the pilot with a dedicated on-site maintenance team (2-3 people) to ensure high availability and gather operational data.
Phase 5
Measure key metrics: rides per bike per day (target 4+), maintenance cost per bike per month (target under $15), contract renewal intent, and user NPS.
Phase 6
Refine pricing model based on pilot data, then pitch 3-5 additional campuses with case study in hand.
Monetization Strategy
B2B subscription model. Charge organizations $50-100 per employee/student per year for unlimited bike access. For a 10,000-person campus, that's $500K-1M in annual recurring revenue. Bikes cost $250 each; deploy 500 bikes for $125K upfront. Monthly maintenance costs ~$10 per bike ($5K/month, $60K/year). Gross margin of 70-80% after stabilization. Upsell premium features: e-bikes for hilly campuses (+$30/user/year), branded bikes for corporate identity, and integration with existing transit apps. Expand revenue by adding scooters or e-scooters to the fleet once bike operations are profitable. The model is capital-efficient because clients pre-pay annually, and controlled environments reduce theft and vandalism to near-zero.
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