Failure Analysis
Greensill's collapse was a cascading failure rooted in fundamental business model flaws masked by growth. The core issue was asset-liability mismatch and concentration risk....
Greensill Capital \UK
Greensill promised to democratize supply chain finance by allowing businesses to get paid faster for their invoices. The pitch was elegant: suppliers could unlock cash tied up in payment terms (30, 60, 90 days) immediately, while buyers could extend their payment periods without harming supplier relationships. Greensill positioned itself as the technological disruptor making working capital optimization accessible beyond Fortune 500 companies, using software to automate what had been a relationship-driven, opaque banking product. The psychological hook was powerful—it wasn't debt, it was just accelerating money you were already owed.
Discover the reason behind the shutdown and the market before & today
Market Analysis
The supply chain finance market today is bifurcating. Traditional banks still dominate large corporate programs (reverse factoring for Fortune 500 suppliers), but they're slow...
Startup Learnings
Asset-liability matching is non-negotiable in lending businesses. Greensill funded 12-month receivables with 30-day commercial paper, creating structural fragility. Any fintech touching credit must match...
Market Potential
The fundamental problem Greensill addressed remains unsolved and growing. Global B2B payments are still plagued by extended payment terms (averaging 60+ days in many...
Difficulty
Rebuilding supply chain finance today requires navigating a post-Greensill regulatory environment where scrutiny is intense. You need genuine banking licenses or partnerships with regulated...
Scalability
Supply chain finance is inherently capital-intensive, which limits pure software scalability. Every dollar of invoice financing requires actual capital deployment, creating a linear relationship...
Rebuild & monetization strategy: Resurrect the company
Execution Plan
Phase 2
Sign one vertical B2B platform as design partner (target construction or healthcare procurement with 500+ businesses transacting monthly). Integrate Cascade into their checkout/invoicing flow.
Phase 3
Launch with 50 supplier businesses on the platform, offering net-30 terms on purchases. Monitor default rates, payment behavior, and platform engagement for 90 days.
Phase 4
Refine credit model using actual performance data. Add early payment option (suppliers can get paid in 1-5 days for a 1-3% fee). Measure take rate and unit economics.
Phase 5
Expand to second platform in same vertical, then recruit two additional capital providers to create marketplace dynamics and improve pricing.
Monetization Strategy
Cascade charges 20-40 basis points (0.2-0.4%) of transaction value as a software/infrastructure fee, split with the host platform. On a $100K invoice, that's $200-400 per transaction. If suppliers opt for early payment, Cascade takes an additional 30-50 basis points of the discount fee. Capital providers (debt funds, banks) earn the credit spread (2-8% APR depending on risk). At scale, with $500M in annualized payment volume across platforms, Cascade generates $1-2M in annual revenue per platform partner. The model is capital-light (Cascade doesn't fund receivables) and scales with software economics once integrations are built. Target 10-15 platform partners by year two, reaching $10-15M ARR.
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